This is conjecture on my part but I think Roon is in trouble and the nugs project, end to end, is one of multiple indicators.
The business equation is simple. nugs is an investment. It has actual up-front cost in terms of R&D, marketing. It has recurring operational cost just to keep the service healthy and running. It also has opportunity cost, which is the cost of not doing what Roon might have otherwise done if they had not built nugs.
It’s easier to quantify the R&D and operational costs than it is to quantify the opportunity cost, but you can’t ignore it.
For nugs to make sense fiscally, it has to contribute more than it costs. For actual costs, it has to result in some combination of user retention, increased per-user revenue, user growth. To me, that’s not happening. nugs is not going to bring a massive influx of users into Roon. We’re not seeing any evidence of that. Why? Well…their user base is small, niche, and already has nugs apps for their mobile phones and their TVs. What’s the Roon value proposition for these folks? It’s something like go buy and set up a new server, deal with the fact that your wireless network won’t be up to the task and, if you pull all this off, then. you’ve managed to put a service and an app in between you and nugs to replace the nugs apps you already had so you can do less with it.
The uptake on this will be small at best. The impact to Roon’s bottom line won’t be significant.
I’ve been in the industry a long time. This nugs integration has the hallmarks of a business-development initiative, not a real product initiative. Somebody somewhere knew someone at the other company. Somebody somewhere is confused about the difference between “activity” in a product and “progress’“ in a product.
To me, though, the real issue is the opportunity cost. It’s what Roon didn’t do because they spent months on nugs. They didn’t:
- Do a deep dive into the network issues that lead to setup and reliability issues for users
- Make it unnecessary to have an advanced degree in TailScale and networking to use ARC where other products just proxy
- Invest in “delighting” existing users with something special around music discovery and either curated content or real, exciting generated stuff like all of the other apps/services manage to do
- Fix the long-standing issues with metadata, box sets, the rest of it
- Invest in Search, New Releases, fixing auto downloads on ARC or anything else many of us know are lingering issues
Job #1 for Roon isn’t rolling out niche stuff like this. It’s getting crystal clear about who and what they are and where they’re going. Re-recruiting existing users and getting them excited. Turning the existing community into brand advocates. Getting the sales folks in HiFi shops to actually recommend Roon instead of steering users away from it like the guys in my local HiFi shops do because they don’t want to be trying to help users install it and keep it running.
The future of Roon can’t be a small and not growing group of 70+ year old men who mostly listen to their CD collection that they managed to rip. This thing needs to come alive, with some real energy and leadership and vision. Get the product rock solid and then be clear about what new scenarios are going to drive real retention growth. It’s not nugs.
